Oportunidades productivas y de inversión en Colombia en el contexto de la relocalización de cadenas globales de valor

Abstract

Colombia is navigating a unique juncture in the global economic landscape. The reconfiguration of international trade, the global geopolitical context, and accelerated global value chain relocation processes open concrete opportunities for emerging economies with competitive conditions. This study, developed with technical support from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), identifies the productive and investment opportunities emerging for Colombia in this context and designs a public policy roadmap to capitalize on them. The analysis combines a rigorous identification of 5 sectors with the highest internationalization potential, the characterization of structural obstacles, and the formulation of recommendations organized along five axes: (1) logistics competitiveness and trade facilitation; (2) exporting with quality and global talent; (3) investment attraction, facilitation, and retention; (4) productive internationalization and export culture; and (5) trade and internationalization finance. Under the baseline scenario, implementing this strategy could generate additional exports of USD 122 billion by 2045, multiply non-traditional exports sevenfold, and raise GDP 16% above the baseline scenario, lifting half a million people out of unemployment and one million out of poverty between 2026 and 2030.