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    Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix

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    Date

    2002-12

    Author

    Arbeláez, María A.
    Poterba, James
    Ayala, Ulpiano

    Notas

    Este informe no ha sido formalmente editado

    URI

    http://hdl.handle.net/11445/1600
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    Abstract

    This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal policy is not sustainable. Substantial increases in the government s fiscal surplus are needed in order to return to a regime in which the debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize in several decades- Our base can analysis suggests that stabilizing the debt-to GDP ratio at 45% by the year 2030 would require a 1,8% of GDP reduction in the fiscal deficit, effective immediately. This assumes that the social security reforms introduced in the last Congress are enacted- If they are not, the required adjustment in the fiscal deficit is several percentage points greater.

    Abstract

    This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal policy is not sustainable. Substantial increases in the government s fiscal surplus are needed in order to return to a regime in which the debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize in several decades- Our base can analysis suggests that stabilizing the debt-to GDP ratio at 45% by the year 2030 would require a 1,8% of GDP reduction in the fiscal deficit, effective immediately. This assumes that the social security reforms introduced in the last Congress are enacted- If they are not, the required adjustment in the fiscal deficit is several percentage points greater.

    Palabras clave

    Política Fiscal
    Déficit Fiscal
    Misión del Ingreso Público
    Colombia

    JEL

    H60
    H62
    H63
    Collections
    • Macroeconomía, Política Monetaria y Fiscal [166]

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    Acerca de Fedesarrollo

    La Fundación para la Educación Superior y el Desarrollo (Fedesarrollo) es una entidad privada sin ánimo de lucro. Establecida en 1970, se dedica a la investigación en temas de política económica y social.

    Fedesarrollo

    Calle 78 Nº 9 -91, Bogotá - Colombia
    Tel (571) 325 9777, Fax (571) 325 9770
    https://www.fedesarrollo.org.co
    © 2017, Todos los derechos reservados

    Redes Sociales