El desempleo en Colombia

Abstract

"This work analyzes the behavior of the urban unemployment rate in Colombia between 1984:1 and 2000:2. It presents some evidence on the time series properties of the variables of the labor market such as the rates of employment, unemployment and participation. We estimate the periods in which the labor market was on the equilibrium path and also out of it. Thus, we establish the period for which the hypothesis that the trend component of the unemployment rate and the NAIRU are equal. In this sense, we discuss some possible reasons why the trend component surpassed the NAIRU from 1994 on. Among such reason we discuss the asymmetric rigidity of the real wage as well as the existence of high other extra-wage labor costs. Accordingly, the hypothesis of high persistence of the unemployment rate cannot be rejected. Policies aimed to reducing the unemployment rate from 20% to 14%, say, based on a decomposition method, should not have inflationary consequences, if the real wage and other extra- wage costs have a behavior compatible with that target. Levels of the unemployment rate less than 14% would produce inflationary pressures unless the extra-wage labor costs decrease permanently and the information systems and skill programs designed to reduce the mismatching improve significantly."