Tendencia Económica. No. 203

Abstract

In this Actualidad article we analyze the sectors that triggered the Colombian economy during 2019, as well as those that limited economic growth. Additionally, we present our forecasts for 2020.

Although Colombia has shown good results in terms of economic growth, the unemployment rate throughout the national territory has become the main concern of our macroeconomic performance. In 2019, the national unemployment rate reached 10,5%, levels that have not been observed since 2011 (10,8%). At the same time, the participation rate was reduced from 64,0% in 2018 to 63,3% in 2019. Additionally, last year, 455 thousand people entered inactivity. All the above has been a major concern for the Government, the private sector and the macroeconomic analysts because understanding the reasons behind the deterioration of the Colombian labor market hasn´t been an easy task. Within the countries of LAC-6 Colombia is the country that had a better performance in terms of economic growth during 2019. This behavior is explained by the good performance of domestic demand, which has been driven by private consumption and investment. However, the pace of economic recovery has been lower than expected. Taking this into account, we expect an annual growth of 3,3% for 2019. For 2020, we expect GDP to be around 3,5%, which is consistent with a favorable behavior of domestic demand and a correction of the trade balance due to a moderation in the imports.