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dc.contributor.authorArbeláez, María A.
dc.contributor.authorBenítez, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorSteiner, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorValencia, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorFedesarrollo
dc.contributor.otherHiguera, Sebastián
dc.contributor.otherBernal, Sebastián
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-30T17:36:19Z
dc.date.available2020-11-30T17:36:19Z
dc.date.issued2021-02
dc.identifier.citationArbeláez, M. A.; Benítez, M. Steiner, R. & Valencia, O. (2021). A Fiscal Rule to achieve debt sustainability in Colombia. Bogotá: Fedesarrollo, February.spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11445/4041
dc.description.abstractIn order to enhance fiscal sustainability and regain “investment grade” credit rating, in 2011 Colombia implemented a fiscal rule (FR) on the Central Government´s structural balance. Investment grade was rapidly attained, and FR targets were complied with, until 2019. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we provide evidence that the FR promoted fiscal discipline. Nevertheless, public debt has increased continuously and is now expected to exceed 60 percent of GDP, in large part driven by the pandemic. We argue that the FR should be reformed so as to incorporate a debt anchor. Using a regime change model and the IMF´s buffer risk methodology, we show that the prudent debt level should not exceed 48 percent of GDP and that in order to achieve this in the medium term, a policy mix increasing revenues to 17.8 percent of GDP (from 15.5 percent during 2016-2019) and reducing primary expenditure to 15 percent (from 16 percent during 2016-2019) is required. FR’s performance would also benefit from changes in its institutional design.en
dc.description.sponsorshipInter-American Development Bank - IDBspa
dc.subjectRegla Fiscalspa
dc.subjectDeuda Públicaspa
dc.subjectPolítica Fiscalspa
dc.subjectColombiaspa
dc.subject.otherMacroeconomía, Política Monetaria y Fiscalspa
dc.titleA Fiscal Rule to achieve debt sustainability in Colombiaen
dc.description.jelE37spa
dc.description.jelE62spa
dc.description.jelH42spa
dc.description.jelH30spa
dc.description.jelH60spa
dc.description.shortabstractIn order to enhance fiscal sustainability and regain “investment grade” credit rating, in 2011 Colombia implemented a fiscal rule (FR) on the Central Government´s structural balance. Investment grade was rapidly attained, and FR targets were complied with, until 2019.en
dc.creator.emailmarbelaez@fedesarrollo.org.cospa
dc.creator.emailmbenitez@fedesarrollo.org.cospa
dc.creator.emailcomercial@fedesarrollo.org.cospa
dc.title.englishA Fiscal Rule to achieve debt sustainability in Colombiaen
dc.subject.keywordsFiscal Rulesen
dc.subject.keywordsPublic Debten
dc.subject.keywordsSynthetic Control Methoden
dc.subject.keywordsDebt Anchoren
dc.subject.keywordsColombiaen


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