Beneficios económicos del Acuerdo de Paz en Colombia

Abstract

We assess two sources of the impact on economic growth of the 2016 Peace Agreement between the FARC guerrilla and the Colombian Government: i) the permanent reduction in armed conflict’s intensity; and ii) the impact of public Investment for Peace, financed with resources of the National Budget (PGN). The results suggest that the Agreement will contribute with 0.17-0.28pp to economic growth between 2017-2031. Within this effect, the economic gains derived from the demobilization of the FARC account for 0.05-0.16pp of economic growth during 10 years, while the execution of public investment using resources from the National Budget would add on average 0.12pp to growth, mostly due to the reallocation of expenditures to relatively more productive uses. Moreover, the evidence indicates that the Agreement will accelerate regional convergence, and that the economic activities that would benefit the most with its implementation are agriculture, construction, and tourism. Finally, the results indicate that the growth of potential GDP would increase between 0.07pp and 0.19pp.