Tendencia Económica No. 250

Abstract

Editorial: At Fedesarrollo, we project that 2024 will present a more promising outlook compared to the previous year. We anticipate an acceleration in economic growth to 1.6%, up from 0.6% in the previous year, and a reduction in inflation to 5.62% by the end of the year, allowing for a less contractionary monetary policy rate of 8.5%. In the external sector, we estimate that the current account deficit will be 2.6% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2.5% in 2023, due to the revision of deficit figures and a greater appreciation of the exchange rate, resulting in a higher nominal GDP in dollars. In fiscal terms, we foresee a Central Government deficit of 5.6% of GDP, with a total expenditure cut of 1.6% of GDP, in line with the necessary adjustment of more than $20 trillion pesos that we anticipated from Fedesarrollo last year. However, 2024 will still be a year far from long-term economic equilibrium, with growth below its potential, inflation outside the target range, and a significant fiscal imbalance.

Actualidad:

In March 2023, DANE published updated population projections for Colombia through 2070, incorporating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country's mortality and birth rates. According to DANE, Colombia's estimated population in the updated series would be lower than projected in the pre-pandemic estimations. In addition, the age composition of the population would show a higher proportion of older people, resulting in an increase in the country's aging index. It is also noted that negative population growth, previously projected to begin in 2065, would be brought forward to 2051. The differences between the previous series and the updated projections are mainly due to the increase in mortality between 2020 and 2021, in the context of the pandemic.