Encuesta de Opinión Empresarial. Resultados octubre de 2025

Abstract

In October 2025, the Retail Confidence Index (RCI) stood at 22.1%, representing an increase of 1.7 percentage points (pp) compared to the previous month (RCI September 2025: 20.4%). The higher retail confidence was explained by a 2.0 pp increase in expectations regarding the economic situation for the next semester, a 1.6 pp increase in the perception of the company’s or business’s current economic situation, and a 1.5 pp decrease in the stock level. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the RCI increased by 4.3 pp (RCI October 2024: 17.8%).

Meanwhile, the Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) stood at 4.9% in October 2025, showing a decrease of 4.1 pp compared to the previous month (ICI September 2025: 9.0%). The negative monthly variation in industrial confidence in October was explained by a 16.3 pp drop in production expectations for the next quarter and a 4.9 pp increase in the stock level, partially offset by an 8.9 pp rise in the current volume of orders. Compared to the same month of 2024, the ICI increased by 5.3 pp (ICI October 2024: -0.4%).

Regarding the quarterly module, in the third quarter of 2025 there was a positive quarterly variation in the value exported in dollars (6.7 pp) and in the perception of export orders (3.4 pp). Meanwhile, there was a negative quarterly variation in the profitability of exporting activity (-8.1 pp) and in the 3-month expectations of the value exported in dollars (-13.4 pp). Additionally, in the third quarter of 2025, the most favorable factor for export activity was the Plan Vallejo system, while the peso-dollar exchange rate was the most unfavorable factor.