¿Qué explica la caída de la inversión en Colombia?

Abstract

Throughout the twenty-first century, the Colombian economy has recorded an average growth rate of 3.6%, higher than that observed in Latin America and the Caribbean (2.4%). This growth path has been sustained, with the exception of 2020, when Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 7.2% as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although in 2021 and 2022 the economy recovered with significant growth rates, in the following years there was a sharp slowdown, with average growth of 1.6%, below the 3.7% recorded between 2010 and 2019 and the regional average in the same period (2.3%), which reflects a persistent problem in the country’s growth capacity.

This weaker dynamism has been mainly associated with the slowdown in investment, which has been falling since 2015 when it reached a peak of 23.4% of GDP, with a pace of decline that has accelerated in recent years. In the first half of 2025, investment stood at 16.1% of GDP, the lowest level in two decades and below that recorded during the pandemic (18.4%), with a reduction of three percentage points compared with 2023, a setback similar to that observed between 2019 and 2020. This decline responds to several factors that are analyzed in this document. First, the increase in the user cost of capital, associated with the rise in long-term interest rates and the high tax burden. Second, the increase in uncertainty, reflected in Fedesarrollo’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (IPEC), which in 2025 reached 258 points compared with an average of 100 between 2000 and 2019.

This document presents an analysis of these dynamics. First, it examines the historical evolution of growth and investment in both the short and long run. Then, it analyzes the evolution of the main determinants of investment, including the interaction between public spending and public debt, the user cost of capital with its financial and tax components, and the behavior of uncertainty. It also analyzes the consequences of maintaining current investment levels for the trend growth of the economy. Subsequently, it presents an econometric estimate of the effect that the user cost of capital and uncertainty have had on the investment rate. Finally, it sets out public policy recommendations aimed at restoring investment in Colombia as a fundamental strategy to boost economic growth and employment.