Prospectiva Económica, Diciembre 2025

Abstract

In this edition of Prospectiva Económica, we analyze the recent performance of the Colombian economy in 2025 and present Fedesarrollo’s medium term projections for growth, inflation, the external sector, and public finances, in the context of a global environment of slower growth and lower commodity prices. Global growth is projected at 3,2% in 2025, easing to 3,1% in 2026, alongside weaker momentum among Colombia’s main trading partners. Against this backdrop, the exchange rate is expected to appreciate in 2025, averaging $\$$4.052, while the 2026 average is projected at $\$$3.943. This occurs in a scenario where fiscal risks and policy uncertainty linked to the electoral cycle would generate depreciation pressures, despite a more restrictive monetary policy stance.

Regarding economic activity, Fedesarrollo revised its 2025 growth forecast upward from 2,6% to 2,8%, driven by stronger performance in public administration. This outcome would be associated with solid results in artistic, commercial, and agricultural activities, while construction and mining continue to weigh on growth. From the demand side, consumption consolidates as the main driver and investment shows an incipient recovery, still below pre pandemic levels. For 2026, growth is projected at 2,9%, while medium term growth depends on the recovery of investment, giving rise to alternative scenarios. The labor market would remain on a favorable trend, with an average unemployment rate of 9,0% in 2025.

In the external sector, the current account deficit is projected to close 2025 at 2,4% of GDP, 0,8 percentage points above 2024, explained by a larger goods trade deficit amid stronger import dynamics and an appreciating peso in the second half of the year. From 2026 onward, the deficit would widen to 3,0% of GDP. On inflation, after reaching 5,30% in November 2025, Fedesarrollo projects inflation to end 2025 at 5,26% and 2026 at 4,91%. In response, a monetary tightening cycle is expected in 2026, with policy rate increases up to 10,00%.

On the fiscal front, the 2025 fiscal outcome would show a temporary improvement associated with debt management operations that would reduce net public debt to 58,4% of GDP and interest payments to 3,4% of GDP, bringing the overall deficit to 6,4% of GDP, albeit with a deterioration in the primary deficit, which would stand at 3,0% of GDP. From 2026 onward, fiscal pressures would intensify, with an overall deficit of 8,1% of GDP and a debt trajectory that would exceed the fiscal rule’s anchor in 2027 in the absence of adjustments. For this reason, Fedesarrollo proposes a comprehensive fiscal adjustment starting in 2027 to reduce the fiscal deficit and stabilize net debt. Finally, the regional analysis shows that growth in 2025 would be led by Bogotá (3,4%) and the Central region (3,1%), while the Caribbean (1,9%) and Amazonía Orinoquía (1,7%) would grow below the national average.