Tendencia Económica No. 220

Abstract

Editorial: The growth prospects for the second semester are associated with the increase in the mobility of people and the reactivation of seriously affected activities in 2020. Considering that, as well as a low statistical base effect related to the contraction of 6.8 % in the previous year, we expect a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 7.2% for 2021. Regarding the fiscal accounts, our estimates on the total balance and the debt show a deterioration for 2021 compared to the previous year, because of greater pressures on public spending that cannot be offset by the increase in total income as a result of the economic reactivation and the strategies that the national government plans to carry out this year.

Actualidad: The current account deficit in the second semester of 2021 reached 5,4% of the GDP, this represents an increase of 1,8 pps in comparison with the same semester last year. These results are due to the increase in the commercial balance deficit and in minor extent to the recovery of the primary income. Nevertheless, these increases were counterbalanced by an intense growth of the remittances. In this article we describe the behavior of each component in the balance of payments, followed by an analysis of the financing of the current account deficit, our perspectives for the end of the year and in the medium term, and finally some considerations of the risks that surround the external sector.